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Semiconductor industry research: did micron ignite the first fire of the sharp decline in the demand and price of memory chips

total non-metallic impact testing machine and other conclusions: after we commented on "the downward trend of memory chips has been determined, how bad is it this time?" since September this year, Intel 14 nm x86 CPU shortage, customer clean-up, flash memory (dram/nand) have been superimposed Inventory, virtual currency collapse and Apple's revision of nearly 30% of its iPhone intelligent industrial chain orders in early November have adverse effects. Micron expects sales to decline by% month on month and% year on year in the first quarter, which is far lower than the 8% month on month and 0% year on year decline expected by the market, while the operating profit margin will fall sharply from 48% of 4q18 to% of the probability of machine damage caused by improper use of fine particles deposited in the back end of 1q19

due to the sharp decline in demand and prices, micron lowered its capital expenditure from US $10.5 billion to US $billion, and cut the year-on-year bit growth of DRAM demand in 2019 from 20% to 15%, and the year-on-year bit growth of NAND demand from 40% to 35%. Our prediction is that in the next three quarters, every enterprise in the memory dram ring will survive in ensuring a certain profit space. The bit price will fall%, the flash NAND bit price will fall every quarter, and the operating profit margin of micron and other large manufacturers will drop below 20%

although the downward trend of memory prices has been established, we predict that the duration of this downward trend should not exceed 12 months (calculated from January 2019). Intel's shortage of 14 nm x86 CPU should ease in the second half of next year, and 10 nm x86 CPU should be mass produced in the second half of next year. Amd 7 nm x86 CPU, Qualcomm 7 nm smart chip, 5g, and cloud AI server demand will have a positive impact on storage chips. However, this downward trend will worsen the short-term profit prospects of Hefei Changxin for Changjiang storage, a major Chinese mainstream memory chip manufacturer that will be mass produced next year. However, in 2019, 15% of the global DRAM year-on-year bit growth and 35% of the NAND year-on-year bit demand growth rate plus the upcoming mass production of Changjiang storage and Hefei Changxin's internal/flash memory bit growth, Tai Chi Industry (increasing the number of packaged chips and testing time) is still relatively beneficial to the cost plus storage chip packaging and testing factory

investment suggestions Chinese Mainland focuses on companies: Changjiang storage, Hefei Changxin, Taiji industry global focus companies: SK Hynix, micron

risk tip: Although we estimate that the downward trend of the memory chip industry should not exceed 12 months (from January 2019), the relevant manufacturers will not enter a loss, but we cannot rule out the comprehensive inventory clearing action caused by the downward trend, It may lead to a price collapse far higher than the market expectation, and the semiconductor process evolution accelerates output due to the price collapse, resulting in a memory chip supply far higher than the market expectation

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